GDP Cubano.

Para todo aquel que este interesado en invertir en Cuba, por favor lean este articulo que se publicara en el Financial Times el pasado lunes. En esencia plantean que las estadistas económicas que publica Cuba no son de fiar, que sorpresa, No?. De acuerdo con este análisis Cuba real GDP es de $2.3Bn mitad de la economía Haitiana.

Cuba’s economy

Published: March 2 2008 19:23 | Last updated: March 2 2008 19:23

Kremlinologists beware. There is only a handful of countries left where outside observers can practise the arcane science of analysing regimes where political change is mandated behind closed doors and official data cannot be trusted. The quality of information on countries such as Cuba, though, is so poor that such analysis often seems more of an art than a science.

Take the size of Cuba’s economy. Calculations of gross domestic product vary significantly, from the government’s official figure of $54bn in 2007 to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s estimate of $45bn. The variations are due not just to the paucity of data but also to the authorities’ decision, since 2003, to value government services at market value, rather than at cost, as is the standard internationally. The EIU estimates that adjusting for this makes an cumulative 11 percentage point difference to the real GDP growth rate from 2004 to 2006.

History also suggests the value of formerly communist countries’ assets is often grossly overestimated. East Germany’s economy, for example, was considered by the United Nations to be the 10th largest in the world before reunification. But, as historian Henrik Beringer points out, the net value of its economic assets at reunification, initially estimated at $1,000bn, was finally revised down to a net liability of $280bn.

In part, these difficulties reflect the challenge of choosing the right exchange rate. Based on purchasing power parity, the CIA estimates 2007 Cuban GDP at $51bn. Where the currency would trade if the economy was more open is debatable – Cuba already has parallel exchange rates valuing the peso at either 0.93 or 22 to the US dollar. Based on the latter, and using official domestic currency GDP figures, its economy is worth $2.3bn.

This would make Cuba’s economy roughly half that of Haiti, its poverty stricken neighbour. This seems far too small. But sticklers for accuracy will have to wait for more than Fidel Castro’s exit from power.